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Could New Jersey Devils RFA Dawson Mercer Get an Offer Sheet?

Jim Biringer
Jim Biringer
6 Min Read
With the news of the offer sheets the other day, could the New Jersey Devils face a similar scenario with RFA forward Dawson Mercer.
Jan 25, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; New Jersey Devils center Dawson Mercer (91) tries to get the puck past Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce (22) during the second period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

The New Jersey Devils and General Manager Tom Fitzgerald have one thing left to do on the summer punch list: sign restricted free agent forward Dawson Mercer to an extension.

New Jersey took care of its housekeeping business after extending Nolan Foote to a one-year contract on Monday. Recall that the Devils tendered qualifying offers on June 30th to Foote, Adam Beckman, defenseman Santeri Hatakka, and goalie Nico Daws. All four players signed extensions except for Mercer. Mercer had been the subject of trade talks throughout last season and even the previous season.

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The caveat here is that Mercer is an RFA without arbitration rights. Tom Fitzgerald has made it clear he wants Mercer to be part of the Devils moving forward. However, with players like Shane Pinto, Martin Necas, Jack Drury, Kaapo Kakko, and Kirill Marchenko signing extensions, the market for Mercer is getting higher and higher in terms of AAV.

Throw in the St. Louis Blues offer sheeting Edmonton Oilers players Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, especially at two years at $2.2 million, and you have to think what an offer sheet for Dawson Mercer could look like.

Few teams could offer sheet Mercer because only half the league has cap space. Not to mention, the compensation for Mercer would be high, especially if they tried to use the salary cap to their advantage.

When the Blues sent offer sheets to Holloway for two years at $2,290,457 AAV, which requires a third-round pick in compensation, and Broberg for two years at $4,580,917 AAV, which requires a second-round pick in compensation, they made a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins to get those exact draft picks. The Oilers have seven days to decide whether to match one or both of these offer sheets.

So, what will Dawson Mercer get on a bridge deal?

According to PuckPedia.com, the Devils have about $4.97 million in cap space. So, the Devils do not have much money to give him a long-term extension with a high AAV.

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On a recent episode of the Full Press Hockey Podcast with NHLRumors.com hockey analyst Chris Wassel, he reviewed projections on a long-term extension via AFP Analytics. On a five-year deal, the AAV projects out around $6 million. The Devils do not have that right now without another move. The AAV projects around $4.5-$4.6 million on a four-year deal.
Those numbers will put the Devils in a bind. Not to mention, AFP Analytics has projected Mercer on a two-year bridge with an AAV of $3,793,680. That is over Shane Pinto’s AAV and right around Marchenko’s AAV. If a team were to offer Mercer that deal, Tom Fitzgerald would have some serious thinking to do.
The offer sheet is a tactic in a team’s toolbox. We do not see it used much because of the fear of revenge. However, when executed, as we have seen with the Blues, it puts the other team in a bind with a tough decision to make. Again, match the offer or take the draft picks.
They would receive a second-round pick if the Devils did not match the two-year deal. Meanwhile, if they did not match the long-term deal, they would get a first and a third-round pick in compensation.
Again, this is a business, and the Devils have to realize they have a highly praised asset around the league. Teams continue to ask about Dawson Mercer, but Tom Fitzgerald does not want to give him up.
As DevilsNation.com has reported, a bridge deal is the most likely scenario for Mercer and the Devils. The question will be the length and dollar amount, as comparable players have set the market. Ideally, the Devils would like to get him around $2.8 million to give them flexibility moving forward with the salary cap.
However, the most likely scenario is that the parties come to an agreement on a bridge deal around the $3 million mark or a little higher.
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